Perspectives for Cyber-Deterrence: A Quantitative Analysis of Cyber Threats and Attacks on Consumers

Richmond Adebiaye, Haroun Alryalat, Theophilus Owusu

Abstract

Cyber Deterrence could be the United States' best counterintelligence defense against cyber aggression and industrial espionage on the Critical Infrastructure and Key Resources (CIKR) and Cyber Threats on US consumers. As technology improves and global trade and interconnectivity extend beyond comprehension, accountability, ideology and culture, the need to provide fool-proof security to protect US consumers is essential for public safety and national defense. This study involves data collections, which examined the relationship between reliability and validity of different perspectives regarding cyber deterrence. A descriptive statistical investigation using survey methodologies was employed to ascertain concerns of 150 victims of cyber “hacktivism” on their finances through banking systems or retail merchants as well as to determine the framework of implementing cyber deterrence as an acceptable institutionalized cyber-counterintelligence. Theory integration models via obtained responses were used to test whether the stages of interrelation of variables and the mediation of motivation by victims of data breach are statistical viable and significant in predicting Cyber-security countermeasures, and secondly to exemplify/validate the data values for “bias”. The collection of the quantitative values is tabulated along a continuum in numerical form using scores, chisquare, and prevalence and frequency rates derived. This allowed the reliability and validity in the analysis of the mean patterns, nonlinear trends using ANOVA, prediction-patterns, multi-group structural equation modeling (MSEM), nested model analyses and stage transitions using binary logistic regression analyses to quantify all data breaches. The study finally presented descriptive statistics and psychometric properties to contextualize and validate analytic decisions made to support the framework for institutionalized cyber deterrence against cyber threats and attacks as an acceptable counterintelligence. The ultimate resultant composition led to frameworks that describe, explain, and validate findings of the surveys.

References

Al Jazeera,“How real is the threat of cyberwar?’ Inside Story: al Jazeera”, Retrieved from http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/ insidestory/2012/10/201210131111678361.html,(2012, October 13).

Amir Lupovici, “The Emerging Fourth Wave of Deterrence Theory: Toward a New Research Agenda”, International Studies Quarterly,Vol 54, Issue 1,pp.705-32. (2010)

Andreasson, K.J., “Introduction”, In K. J. Andreasson (Ed.), Cybersecurity: Public Sector Threats and Responses: XIII-XXV. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.(2011).

Andress, J., and Winterfeld, S.,“Cyber Warfare: Techniques, Tactics and Tools for Security Practitioners”, Waltham, MA: Elsevier.(2011).

Andy Greenberg,“Sketching Obama’s Cyberplans”, Forbes, Retrieved fromhttp://www.forbes.com/2009/02/20/paul-kurtz-securitytechnology-security_kurtz.html, (2009, February 20). [

Boawn, D.L.,“Cyber counterintelligence, defending the United States' information technology and communications critical infrastructure from Chinese threats”, (2014).

Bruno, G., “The Evolution of Cyber Warfare, The Council on Foreign Relations”, Retrieved from http://www.cfr.org/publication/15577, (2008, February 28).

BuckShaw, D.L.,“Mission oriented risk and design analysis of critical information systems”, Retrieved from http://static1.squarespace.com/static/50ce7827e4b03f46ba4a21cf/t/51074b66e4b0a59cd794cf95/1359432550004/IDI+Mission+Risk+and +Design+Analysis.pdf, (2005).

BuckShaw, D.L.,“Mission oriented risk and design analysis of critical information systems”, Retrieved from http://static1.squarespace.com/static/50ce7827e4b03f46ba4a21cf/t/51074b66e4b0a59cd794cf95/1359432550004/IDI+Mission+Risk+and +Design+Analysis.pdf, (2005) [

Caltagirone, S.,“The Cost of Bad Threat Intelligence”, [Web log post]. Retrieved from http://www.activeresponse.org/the-cost-of-badthreat-intelligence/, (2015, May 22).

Cebula, J.J., and Young, L.R.,“Taxonomy of Operational Cyber Security Risks”, Technical Note CEM/SEI-2010-TN-028. Pittsburgh, PA: Software Engineering Institute, (2010).

Central Intelligence Agency, “Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis”Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/library/center-forthe-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/Tradecraft%20Primerapr09.Pdf, (2009). [

Chen Han and Rituja Dongre, “Q & A. What Motivates Cyber-Attackers?” Retrieved from http://timreview.ca/article/838, (n.d.)

Cohen, F.,, Phillips, C., PaintonSwiler, L., Gaylor, T., Leary, P., Rupley, F., and Isler, R.,“A Cause and Effect Model of Attacks on Information Systems: Some Analysis Based on That Model, and The Application of That Model for Cyber Warfare in CID”,Computers & Security,Vol 17, Issue 3,pp.211-221, (1998).

“Data collector”, Retrieved from www.surveydatacollection.com, (n.d.).

Defense News,“Poll: Cyberwarfare is top threat facing US”, Retrieved from http://www.defensenews.com/section/static26, (2013, January 5).

Denning, D.E.,“Framework and Principles for Active Cyber Defense” [Essay], Retrieved From http://faculty.nps.edu/dedennin/publications/Framework%20and%20Principles%20for%20Active%20Cyber%20Defense%20%2011Dec2013.pdf, (2013). [

Denning, D.E., and Neumann, P.G., “Requirements and Model for IDES – A Real Time Intrusion Detection Expert System”, (Document A005, SRI International), Retrieved fromhttp://faculty.nps.edu/dedennin/publications/IDESReport SRI 1985.pdf, (1985).

Dewar, R.S.,“The “Triptych of Cybersecurity”: A Classification of Active Cyber Defence. Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Cyber Conflict”, Tallinn, Estonia (pp. 7-21),Retrieved from https://ccdcoe.org/cycon/2014/proceedings/d1r1s9_dewar.pdf, (2014). [

Eichin, M.W., and Rochlis, J.A.,“With Microscope and Tweezers: An Analysis of the Internet Virus of November 1988”, Retrieved from http://www.utdallas.edu/~edsha/UGsecurity/internet-worm-MIT.pdf, (1989). [

Farnham, G.,“Tools and Standards for Cyber Threat Intelligence Projects”,Retrieved from https://www.sans.org/readingroom/whitepapers/warfare/tools-standards-cyberthreat-intelligence-projects-34375, (2013).

Federation of American Scientists, “The Evolution of the U.S. Intelligence Community:-An”. (n.d.).

Gandhi, R., Sharma, A., Mahoney, W., Sousan, W., Zhu, Q., and Laplante, P.,“Dimensions of Cyber-Attacks: Cultural, Social, Economic, and Political”,IEEE Technology and Society Magazine, Vol 30, Issue 1, 28-38. Retrieved From http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/MTS.2011.940293, (2011). [

Ghionis, A.A.,“The limits of deterrence in the cyber world: An analysis of deterrence by punishment”, University of Sussex, (n.d.)

Gragido, W., Molina, D., Pierce, J., and Selby, N.,“Blackhatonomics: An Inside Look at the Economics of Cybercrime”, Waltham, MA: Elsevier, (2012)

Grau, D., and Kennedy, C.,“TIM Lecture Series – The Business OfCybersecurity. Technology Innovation”, Management Review, Vol. 4, Issue 4,pp.53–57, Retrieved from http://timreview.ca/article/785, (2014).

Hafner, K. and Markoff, J.,“Cyberpunk: Outlaws and Hackers on the Computer Frontier”, New York: Simon & Schuster, (1991).

Harknett, “Information Warfare and Deterrence”, p.104, (n.d.)

Heuer, R. J.,“Psychology of Intelligence Analysis”,Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csipublications/booksand-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/PsychofIntelNew.pdf, (1999) [

“Historical Overview”, Retrieved from http://fas.org/irp/offdocs/int022.html, (n.d.)

Check out our ecommerce solutions

next
prev